Abstract :
Indonesia would have ranked as the world's sixth-largest cocoa producer and third-largest cocoa exporter. Unfortunately, Indonesia's cocoa exports have fluctuated over the past 30 years. An improvement in cocoa exports should be supported by an increase in domestic cocoa production. However, an increase in cocoa production does not necessarily increase the value of cocoa exports if other factors, such as inflation and exchange rate stabilization, do not support it. This study aims to analyze the role of production, inflation, and exchange rate fluctuations on cocoa exports to optimize Indonesian cocoa exports. The analysis method uses the ARDL model to analyze the relationship and short-term and long-term influence among variables. The results show that the dominant variable affecting cocoa exports is the exchange rate variable. Therefore, efforts are needed to strengthen exchange rates and exchange rate risk management, change marketing strategies and partnerships, and maintain and expand export markets.